Follow instructions in the uploaded file: 5EC509 AIM CW2 Assessment Brief 24_UPDATED.docx
Use the following uploaded file for data CW2 data UK and US 2023.xlsx
Category: Applied Intermediate Macroeconomics
Assessment Content
CW2 (60% of the total overall
module mark)
CW2 is an individual
assignment (max 2,500 words limit – penalties apply§) involving monitoring and evaluating economic data
in the application of relevant economic theory to a contemporary topic.
This is a ‘live brief’, so you will need to keep track of the
latest economic developments and the real-time estimates and revisions of your relevant variables
during the module (i.e. Q4 of 2023 and Q1 of 2024). You will use these
updates in theory-informed discussion of the economic impact of the current
events and the policies pursued so far.
You
will write an analysis report that evaluates comparatively the performance
of the UK and the US economies post-Pandemic, discuss the theory behind
the government policies implemented and analyse their impact on the
economic variables chosen.
You will need to use the economic dataset given to draw charts and
inform your discussion of your two countries.
On
the basis of your analysis, you must draw conclusions on the recent past
and expected near-future performance of the two economies.
A. Economic Indicators.
You will be given a data set as an Excel
spreadsheet with the quarterly time series for the indicators below for the
period Q4 2021 – Q3 2023. You will need to monitor and update these variables
for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 yourselves.
1.
GDP growth
rate
2.
Household
final consumption expenditure growth
3.
Government
final consumption expenditure growth
4.
Gross
fixed capital formation growth
5.
Current
account balance (as % of GDP)
6.
Government
budget deficit (as % of GDP)
7.
National
debt (as % of GDP)
8.
Inflation
rate
9.
M4 or M3
monetary aggregate growth rate
10.
Official
Central Bank interest rate
11.
Annual
average yield on 3-month government bonds
12.
Annual
average yield on 10-year government bonds
13.
Real
effective exchange rate index
14.
Employment
rate
15.
Unemployment
rate
16.
Average
earnings (Year-on-Year)
17.
GDP per
hour worked (Year-on-Year growth rate or level index)
18.
Main stock
market index
19.
Purchasing
Managers’ Index
20.
Business
Confidence Index
21.
Consumer
Confidence Index
You will need to cite and reference the data
as follows:
In-text citation: Thomson Reuters (2024).
At the bottom of tables and graphs: ‘Source: Thomson
Reuters (2024)’.
In ‘References’: Thomson Reuters (2024) Various
economic indicators Q4 2021- Q3 2023. Accessed
8 April 2024 from https://eikon.thomsonreuters.com/index.html
B. Analysis report.
First, you will need to overview the impact of recent economic developments
– i.e. the post-pandemic recovery, Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas war etc.
Second, you need to look at how the two countries have fared during
the period given. Essentially, you will need to apply the
textbook theory to analyse the statistical data collected and review the
government policies pursued.
–
Look at
the data and try to figure out what happened. Then pull into the discussion the
indicators that contribute to your argument on the countries’ evolution. You
need to use Excel to draw charts from the data given, plotting the
comparative situation of the countries.
–
DO NOT paste in tables from TradingEconomics, Statista or others
like them.
Do not simply describe the evolution of each indicator in
isolation.
–
Look at
the data comparatively between countries and try to combine indicators in the
same charts (e.g. unemployment and GDP growth). Cite the sources, number the
charts and refer to them in the discussion. Consider
whether a table with numbers would be better to use in the body of the report instead
of a chart.
–
You must
integrate the discussion of the analysis of the indicators with the discussion
of the policies implemented. Identify
the policies pursued in the two countries (cite the sources), see how the
policies relate to what the theory says (cite the textbook) and link back to
the data.
Third, you must keep track of economic developments and the latest
data in the two countries and make inferences on the near future. Use estimates of indicators (e.g. GDP growth) and
forward-looking indicators (e.g. PMI, confidence) to support your analysis.
Fourth, you must make sure that there is a clear argument flowing
through the report and you must draw conclusions based on the points made
previously.
N.B. Application of the theory covered
in the module must be clear throughout the assignment – I expect you to refer to the
equations involving the variables you look at (cite the textbook), draw
appropriate diagrams with IS-LM and the 3-equations models (you
can draw them by hand and paste in a photo).
You need to cite sources in text and give
their full references at the end using the Harvard system. Avoid
Wikipedia, Investopedia, anonymous
blogs and the like. Stick to using the recommended reading lists of
academic journal articles, textbooks and, where appropriate, news articles from
sources such as The Economist, Bloomberg, BBC News, the FT and other
broadsheets.
Suggested report structure:
Abstract
Table
of Contents
Introduction
Overview
of recent and current economic events
Comparing
economic performance in the UK and the US (data and policies)
–
The goods and
financial markets
–
The labour
market
–
Output,
unemployment and inflation
Theory-informed
inferences on the near future
Conclusions
References
§ You must
stay within the 2,500 words – going over the limit will result in the following
penalties:
i.
10 marks
deducted for exceeding the word limit by up to 250 words
ii.
20 marks
deducted for exceeding the word limit by 251-500 words
iii.
30 marks
deducted for exceeding the word limit by 501-750 words
iv.
50 marks
deducted for exceeding the word limit by more than 750 words.