Category: The Satellite Communications Industry

As we have learned throughout this term, the future of satellite communications is uncertain and unstable. In that sense, it is challenging, if not impossible, to predict what is going to happen. But that is not to say that it is unwise to think about the future. There are many analytic tools that are used to develop reasonable inferences about the future. Many of these revolve around the discipline known as “Scenario Planning.”
In the most basic sense, there are two (2) steps to this process. First, you look at the underlying factors (refer to the lecture in the first module), which will determine the future. What are the specific drivers which shape the future? You will need to go beyond simply citing a single force, for example, technology, but go into more detail. So, you might say that the ability of 5G to provide realistic competition to the performance of terrestrial cable will be a key factor in determining the future of SATCOM.
From there, you develop scenarios that will vary this factor. So, in this example, there is one scenario in which the promise of 5G is not realized, and cellular communications remain confined to personal and highly mobile communications. This may provide open market space for SATCOM solutions. The other scenario would be that 5G is effective and captures a sizable share of the broadband market. In this case, the future for SATCOM would be more constrained. SATCOM may prove to only be commercially viable in areas unserved by 5G.  
The assignment for this discussion is to develop four (4) scenarios describing the future of SATCOM. Identify two (2) specific drivers. For each driver, consider two (2) outcomes. One in which the driving event occurs and one in which the driver does not occur. Finally, evaluate which of the drivers was most important and discuss what early signals would provide clear indicators that the drivers would either occur or not occur.   
Your initial post should be a minimum of two (2) paragraphs.
Respond to at least two (2) of your classmates’ posts. Participation grades are assessed based on the exchange of ideas in the discussion forums thoughtfully and substantively, reflecting preparation and analysis.
Do not wait until the end of the module week to contribute to each module’s discussions. Aim to respond to the questions as early in the module week as practicable and use the remainder of the module week to read and reply to the posts of your classmates and instructor.

In this activity, you will present the top-level configuration of your ground segment including the customer and partner interfaces. This description should include: 
Type of system: (point-to-point, point-to-multipoint, or multipoint-to-multipoint) 
Satellite gateway: 
Number and types of Gateway stations, locations 
User interfaces: 
Fixed satellite antenna 
Consumer handsets 
Geographic footprint:
Geographical coverage in year one (1), including capture rates (share of the addressable market) 
Geographical growth plans, including the number of customers and capture rates 
Partnering arrangements: 
Are you going direct to the customer or working through a local provider? 
Revenue estimates should include: 
Based on the capacities and selected geographical regions (which you may have identified in Module 4) you will estimate the actual capturable market. Note that this should be a natural extension of the work in 7.3 – Discussion: Customer Capture Strategies. 
Projected demand increases over the initial 10-year period of options. (You should assume Initial Operational Capability no sooner than 2026.) 
Competitive pressure which may drive down price, including penetration of substitutes into your market space. 
Revenue estimates should not exceed system capacity. 
Cost estimate for the entire system including: 
Estimated cost of the operational system including non-recurring cost
A top level cashflow projection (you do not need to go into deeper detail than cost and revenue on an annual basis.) Use the assumption from Discussion 7.3 for operations cost, unless you have a better developed source. 
For constellation systems, you should just assume that your cost will accrue as you build and deploy satellites. 
For GEO systems, assume a 2-year build cycle. 
You must include launch costs. Use published information for currently operating launch systems. (No SpaceX Starships.) 
Please use the information from Table 1 for reference and adjust your satellite ($/kg) and ground system cost based on mass, complexity, and performance. (The cost for Starlink is an assumed cost based on a 2x complexity factor over OneWeb. A hypothetical HTS satellite for use in costing is also included.) 
Break-even point including a 10% annual cost of capital. 
Revenue and profitability projections: using the information you have developed throughout the module to develop a basic cash flow. 
You will create an audio-narrated presentation, which should be no more than five (5) slides and is not longer than five (5) minutes in length.  
View the presentations of at least two (2) of your classmates and share collegial comments and feedback no later than the end of the third day of the Module 8 week. This will encourage timely comments and discussions.
To ensure that as many presentations as possible benefit from comments and feedback, you should not comment on a presentation with more than two (2) replies time-stamped before you submit your comments.
Additional comments will, of course, be considered in grading this assignment.
Your comments should be brief, no more than one (1) paragraph, and address both the sources of strength in your colleagues’ presentations and specific suggestions for opportunities for improvement.
Respond to comments posted to your presentation by your classmates and instructor.

In this assignment, you will submit your final SATCOM Business Concept Proposal paper. Be sure to review the SATCOM Business Concept (SBC) Project information. There is a firm page limitation of 20 pages not including the References page(s).
While the business concept will not follow the exact formatting of a research paper, your proposal should use APA for the basis of your submission; title page, heading styles, grammar, and all in-text citations and references page need to be in current APA format.
Your paper will automatically be evaluated through Turnitin when you submit your assignment in this activity. Turnitin is a service that checks your work for improper citation or potential plagiarism by comparing it against a database of web pages, student papers, and articles from academic books and publications. Ensure that your work is entirely your own and that you have not plagiarized any material!
There is no required outline for the SBC paper. The purpose of the paper is not to write down everything you have researched. The purpose of the paper is to communicate your business concept. 
As you go through the project selection process, keep in mind that the objective is to learn about the satellite communications industry.  You may want to focus on applications that focus on just using satellite data as a means to deliver their services, they must be SATCOM dependent, and you must structure your SBC so that it analyzes the SATCOM component. For example, it may be OK for you to develop a remote operations system, but you must discuss why SATCOM is essential for your business and you will have to evaluate various SATCOM options. 
Think strategically. Focus on what is most important.
Hint: What is most important is that your SBC meets a need that a sufficient number of customers will pay a sufficient price to justify the investment. A brilliant technical idea without a market is still a bad business idea. By learning what it takes to be successful in this industry, you will be learning the industry in a more comprehensive way than you could ever get from a book (or even a brilliant instructor). 
Having said that, there are certain required elements (in no particular order): 
Problem statement: Why is this a big problem, and why are customers willing to pay for it? Are there different customers? What are the most important factors for the customers? Are there differences between customers? 
How do you make money? What technical and operational solution are you proposing, and why will it solve the customers’ problem? What is your product or service development plan? 
How many customers are there? Really? What is the market for this concept? What is the size of the market? What are the growth rates? How attractive (profitable) is the market? 
What are the cost and revenue risks? 
How competitive is the market? Who are your most important competitors? How does your concept compare with theirs in terms of the customers’ most important factors? 
View the SBC Business Proposal drafts of at least two (2) of your classmates and share collegial comments and feedback no later than the end of the third day of the Module 9 week. This will encourage timely comments and discussions.
To ensure that as many SBC Business Proposal drafts as possible benefit from comments and feedback, you should not comment on a draft with more than two (2) replies time-stamped before you submit your comments.
Additional comments will, of course, be considered in grading this assignment.
Your comments should be brief, no more than one (1) paragraph, and address both the sources of strength in your colleagues’ SBC Business Proposal drafts and specific suggestions for opportunities for improvement.
Respond to comments posted to your SBC Business Proposal draft by your classmates and instructor.

SATCOM struggles to compete with the highest value terrestrial alternatives on most, if not all sources of value, in areas where they compete head-to-head. However, the entire world is not served by high-speed fiber optic cable. Cellular wireless technologies may well approach or exceed the capabilities of SATCOM at some point in the future. So, the fundamental question remains, how do you make money off the market that remains, given the inexorable march of terrestrial technology? The markets will be only those areas not likely to be served by terrestrial systems in the next 10 years. However, much of the unserved area is very underdeveloped, and neither the governments nor the population have the economic means to pay very high rates. Alternatively, there are remote and mobile users, think resource extraction industries, maritime, and aeronautical, who have the need and the capacity to pay. But is that enough of a market? 
In this discussion, we will consider the two alternatives of GEO HTS satellites and LEO constellations for a single year in 2030. For system capacity requirements use the information provided in the Broadband High-Throughput Satellites ( Library – Springer)Links to an external site. chapter.
You will also need to download and use the Module 7 Discussion Spreadsheet (XLSX). Download Module 7 Discussion Spreadsheet (XLSX).The spreadsheet is best viewed in Microsoft Excel® where you can view both tabs for all of the data and information.
In this discussion we will look at the steady state profitability of the two approaches:   
For the GEO HTS system, select one country or region. 
For the constellation system (PlanetLink) you may select any 10 countries, but geopolitics proscribe you from operation in Russia and China. 
Discuss which solution is more profitable:    
Both GEO and constellation systems will not be competitive in regions served by terrestrial fiber or 5G. Therefore, the simplified assumptions are:
Countries with greater than 80% of the population in urban areas will not be profitable.
In non-urban countries capture rate will be no greater than 10% of total non-connected households.
Customers cannot pay more than 5% of per capita GDP for services, but in no case will the customers pay more than $100/month.
Services are sold by the household, assuming four (4) people per household.
Assume all non-recurring costs have been absorbed from 2025-2030 and that the constellation is fully deployed in 2030.
Both systems
Must pay 10% cost of capital to their investors each year.
Per capita usage is 8gb/day (Please view the Module 7 Discussion Spreadsheet linked near the beginning of the directions.)
GEO HTS satellites, assume the following:
Have 200 spot beams each of which covers 1500km diameter footprints. You may spread these beams over as many countries as you like but they must all remain on the same continent.
The system total capacity is limited to 1 Terabyte.
Systems-level cost of $300 million including launch.
The operations cost for a single system is $50m/yr.
For the very large constellation (Planetlink). Assume the following:
A constellation of 4,000 spacecraft each of which costing $2.4m a satellite but could cover the entire globe. Launch costs will be $50m. And each launch carries 50 satellites. 
It has a total system capacity of 10 TBS.
Ground antennas cost $1000 each. Each household pays $500 for an antenna, the company absorbs the remainder of the costs.
The operations cost for the system is $50m/yr base costs plus $10m/yr for each country in which they are operating.
Select no more than 10 countries.
Sensitivity – Discuss which approach is more sensitive to the following changes in assumptions:
Risk and cost of capital: equity investors begin to flee to quality, and the cost of capital for goes up to 15%.
Regulatory risk: Planet Link runs into regulatory challenges and is only able to capture seven (7) countries.
Using the Module 7 Discussion Spreadsheet (linked near the beginning of the directions), discuss how robust each system is to growth in data usage in the selected countries.
There are several sites for data on population density. Please explore Our World in Data.Links to an external site. From the home page, you can search by “population density.” That will take you to a page with many data links and charts. Tracking population density and GDP will be particularly useful in this exercise.
Urban population vs. GDP per capita
Share of population using internet
Fixed broadband subscription per 100 people
After you have posted to the discussion, read and respond to at least two of your classmates’ postings and any comments by your instructor with constructive commentary. Your responses to your classmates should be thought-provoking and continue the conversation. 

In this activity, you will present the top-level configuration of your space segment. This description should include: 
Orbital parameters.  
If you have selected a GEO system, include: 
Number of spacecraft
Longitudinal location including separation from other satellites
If you have chosen a constellation: 
Number of spacecraft in the total constellation 
Orbital planes (altitude, inclination number of satellites per plane) 
Frequency bands 
Type of payload: (i.e., digital switching, bent pipe, hybrid, software reconfigurable) 
Mass and power levels 
Launch vehicle 
Approximate cost: 
Using the parameters above, select a similar satellite type, and estimate the space segment cost. Please consult with your instructor to get a reasonable analog. 
You will create an audio-narrated presentation, which should be no more than five (5) slides and is not longer than five (5) minutes in length. 
View the presentations of at least two (2) of your classmates and share collegial comments and feedback no later than the end of the third day of the Module 7 week. This will encourage timely comments and discussions.
To ensure that as many presentations as possible benefit from comments and feedback, you should not comment on a presentation with more than two (2) replies time-stamped before you submit your comments.
Additional comments will, of course, be considered in grading this assignment.
Your comments should be brief, no more than one (1) paragraph, and address both the sources of strength in your colleagues’ presentations and specific suggestions for opportunities for improvement.
Respond to comments posted to your presentation by your classmates and instructor.

What is the market for your SBC? Evaluate the market segment for your SBC.
Your analysis should include the following:
What are the market segments your SBC will address? Be specific. 
Who are the users in these markets? What are their preferences? 
Total Addressable Market (TAM) for each segment. 
Serviceable Available Market (SAM). This should be the TAM minus elements of the market in which you cannot be competitive, either because the market is closed to competition or your offering does not meet the needs of customer preferences in that market. 
Provide a Porter 5 forces analysis of the market segment you are evaluating. This should be an evaluation of the entire industry segment, not just your company. (See the Casadesus-Masanell reading from the HBR course packet.)
You will create an audio-narrated presentation, which should be no more than five (5) slides and is not longer than five (5) minutes in length. 
You may use any tool you wish to create your presentation as long as you meet the criteria.
View the presentations of at least two (2) of your classmates and share collegial comments and feedback no later than the end of the third day of the Module 5 week. This will encourage timely comments and discussions.
To ensure that as many presentations as possible benefit from comments and feedback, you should not comment on a presentation with more than two (2) replies time-stamped before you submit your comments.
Additional comments will, of course, be considered in grading this assignment.
Your comments should be brief, no more than one (1) paragraph, and address both the sources of strength in your colleagues’ presentations and specific suggestions for opportunities for improvement.
Respond to comments posted to your presentation by your classmates and instructor.